Strong storms and wind usher in winter chill on Monday
Temperatures will be significantly colder with a winter-like feel returning
It was a windy and mild finish to the weekend on Sunday ahead of a strong cold front bearing down on the commonwealth. Southwest winds gusts over 50 miles per hour at times Sunday afternoon, with a few reports of some trees and powerlines down just due to the gradient winds. Afternoon highs surged well into the 70s ahead of the front as the commonwealth faces strong to severe storms heading into the overnight hours, which is always concerning when we have severe weather during the nighttime hours.
The Storm Prediction Center has much of Central and Eastern Kentucky in a Level 2 severe weather risk (out of 5) with the Level 3 risk coming as far east as a few of the western counties of our viewing area. All of the data supports an intense squall line of thunderstorms moving across the state through Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. While the best dynamics and probability for winds 65 to 75 miles per hour and spin-up tornadoes is out across Western Kentucky, we still are looking at a legitimate threat across Central and Eastern Kentucky into the early hours of Monday.
The overnight arrival should lessen instability, which should help weaken the line the farther east it gets (this the lower overall risk the farther east you go), the wind fields are so strong that damaging winds and a quick spin-up tornado will remain in play throughout the night as the line presses eastward. This is even more problematic given that it will be moving through when most folks are sleeping so this will be a night where you need to have the ability to receive warnings that will wake you up, so you need to have your cellphones on and charged, your NOAA weather radios on alert mode, and have your safety plan in place. Of course we’ll be on-air and on-line as conditions warrant through the night. This squall line will be pretty thin so the worst of it should roll through over a short spell of time with general rain and thunderstorms for a bit longer behind the initial intense storms and wind.
Once we are clear of that, the focus shifts to a quick return to winter as we head into Monday. Temperatures are expected to fall pretty quickly behind the front with 30s in most spots by daybreak, except for our far eastern counties as the front will just be exiting toward sunrise. In fact temperatures will be steady/falling through the day with readings only in the low to mid-30s by the end of the day. With enough moisture left around and the cold air catching up, we could see some light accumulations (mainly on the grassy areas and elevated surfaces), especially into the eastern mountains so keep that in mind and be prepared for much colder air and wind chills to begin the week.
Our weather will settle down but remain quite cold heading into St. Patrick’s Day on Tuesday with early morning lows dipping into the upper teens, which are some coldest morning lows we’ve seen in nearly a month. Even with some sunshine and high pressure building in, it will be a cold Tuesday with afternoon highs only reaching the low-30s in most spots. A steady west to northwest breeze could make it feel like we are in the 20s most of the day. A clipper system looks to pass us by to our north into early Wednesday so there is a chance of a few snowflakes with temperatures cold enough in the morning but it shouldn’t amount to much. Expect more of a southwest wind and a mix of clouds and sunshine through the day as afternoon highs moderate back into the 40s.
The late week looks pretty quiet overall as we hit the homestretch for the winter season as the Spring Equinox occurs on Friday morning. Temperatures should climb back into the low-60s on Thursday before surging into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees as we welcome the spring season at 10:46am Eastern time on Friday morning. A weak front should drop in as we reach late Saturday but will do nothing more than bring a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler air for the second half of the weekend and into early next week with more dry conditions expected.
ABC 36 Storm Team 3 Day Forecast
Sunday night: Windy with strong storms, colder late. Lows in the mid-30s. Wind: SW 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Monday: Blustery and much colder, scattered snow showers. Highs in the mid-30s early falling into the low 30s by late afternoon. Wind: NW 15-25 mph.
Monday night: A few clouds, breezy and cold. Lows in the upper teens. Wind: W 10-15 mph.
