Strong storms and gusty winds ahead of a sharp cooldown

Warm and humid start to a stormy day

A warm and humid air mass remains firmly in place across the Bluegrass region early Wednesday as a powerful storm system approaches from the west. Temperatures early Wednesday morning are already sitting in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with dewpoints in the 60s — more typical of late spring than early March.

Winds will be gusty throughout the day, with gusts up to 40 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect along and north of the I-64 corridor until 7 PM Eastern. Use caution when driving, especially past high-profile vehicles. Keep an eye on those outdoor trashcans!

Thunderstorms developing farther west will begin moving toward the region through mid-morning. Increasing moisture and weakening atmospheric stability may allow isolated to scattered storms, especially in northern KY.

If storms do develop during the morning hours, they could produce damaging wind gusts and a chance for a spin-up tornado. However, the overall storm structure is expected to be somewhat messy, likely forming clusters or short line segments rather than isolated supercells.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for southern Indiana and far northwestern Kentucky through 12 PM Eastern today. Have ways to receive weather alerts.

Multiple rounds of storms possible today

Forecast confidence remains somewhat uncertain regarding how storms will evolve throughout the day.

We discussed how we will see the first round mid-morning. How much this activity disrupts the atmosphere will play a major role in determining the strength of storms later in the day.

If widespread storms persist through the morning, the atmosphere may struggle to recover before the main cold front arrives. However, if the region sees breaks in the rain and some additional warming, the environment could become unstable enough to support stronger storms later this afternoon and evening.

This second round of storms will arrive along a cold front this afternoon/evening. It will likely enter NW portions of the Bluegrass near 4/5 PM, and will move to the SE, exiting by 8/9 PM.

Damaging winds are the primary severe threat

With strong wind shear in place and moderate instability expected for early March, severe weather will be possible throughout the day. A Level 2 Severe Weather Risk exists for the entirety of the Bluergass.

The main concern will be damaging wind gusts within clusters or lines of thunderstorms.

Brief spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out, particularly if storms organize into line segments with the right orientation. Hail is also possible, but appears to be a lower-end threat compared to wind damage.

Storms are expected to move quickly across the region, which should help limit widespread flooding concerns. However, some locations could receive multiple rounds of heavy rain, with localized totals approaching 1.5 to 2 inches possible, particularly across northern KY.

Sharp cooldown tonight

As the cold front pushes through the region this evening, storms will gradually come to an end from northwest to southeast. A few lingering rain showers may persist into the late evening hours before drier air arrives. We may even see a few snowflakes in far eastern KY, but the chances of these sticking are extremely low.

This is as temperatures fall rapidly behind the front. Readings will drop from the 70s during the afternoon into the 40s within just a few hours. By Thursday morning, lows are expected to settle into the 30s as cooler air takes hold across the Bluegrass.

Cooler but quieter weather late week

Thursday will bring a much different feel compared to the warmth earlier in the week. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s under clearing skies as cooler air spreads into the region.

Conditions remain generally quiet through Friday and Saturday, though breezy winds will return on Friday. Temperatures will recover a bit, reaching the low 60s. Saturday will see much of the same.

Watching another storm system this weekend

Attention then turns to the second half of the weekend when another strong storm system may affect the region. Increasing southerly winds ahead of the system could bring another round of gusty winds Sunday, along with showers and possibly thunderstorms.

Some storms could become strong depending on how much moisture and instability develop ahead of the next cold front. Behind that system, much colder air may surge into the region early next week, potentially bringing temperatures back below normal for mid-March.

Still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the weekend, especially given that we are still several days away.