Rain chances return heading into Tuesday

After a foggy start to Monday that saw visibility down to less than a quarter mile in places during the early morning hours, it turned out to be a pleasant start to Thanksgiving week across the region by late November standards. We saw a few peeks of sunshine during the morning hours (which helped knock the fog out) before clouds continued to thicken up during the day ahead of our next storm system. Even with mostly cloudy skies, afternoon highs managed to reach the upper 50s and low 60s, which is a bit above average for this time of the year.

You’ll need the rain gear heading into Tuesday as another wave of low pressure spins through the Ohio Valley bringing showers and a few isolated thunderstorms. With moisture riding up and over an approaching warm front, look for scattered rain to pick up into the early hours of Tuesday with several rounds of showers expected over the course of the day. It will be a milder day with low to mid-60s expected thanks to winds shifting to the southwest as the warm front arcs through the commonwealth. The best chance for any storms will be in far Southeastern Kentucky (south of the Hal Rogers Parkway) but for now the best dynamics for any strong storms will stay south of the commonwealth.

Heading into the big travel day on Wednesday, a secondary frontal boundary will drop through the Ohio Valley so look for a breezy and cooler day with afternoon highs in the low 50s and a brisk west wind gusting over 20 miles per hour making it feel a bit chilly at times. This front will be the leading edge of some legitimately cold air that will arrive just in time for Thanksgiving Day. While we aren’t looking at any rain or snow with this system, it will be a cold Turkey Day with afternoon highs struggling to get into the upper 30s despite plenty of sunshine around the commonwealth. So the bottom line is that it will be a good day to gather with family and friends, have a good meal and watch some football given the chilly conditions expected.

The winter coats will come in handy for early bird shoppers on Black Friday with temperatures expected to drop into the upper teens  and low-20s so plan on bundling up! High pressure will remain in place so look for plenty of sunshine again on Friday but the colder air-mass will hold tight as well. Afternoon highs will continue to struggle to get out of the 30s for afternoon highs with a few spots down south sneaking into the low-40s. Some of the model data is pinging on some mid-level energy drifting in from the northwest Friday night and into Saturday so there is a low end chance of a few snow/rain showers depending on the timing but that’s something to watch in the coming days. Temperatures should moderate through the long holiday weekend as a more significant storm system arrives by Sunday and into Monday. Look for an all rain event during that window as afternoon highs climb back through the 50s and toward the 60 degree mark to kick off December!