Rain chances ramp up just in time for Oaks Day
We've enjoyed a fantastic start to May but it looks wet and a bit stormy heading into Derby weekend
It was another incredible day on weather Thursday across Central and Eastern Kentucky with more sunshine and unseasonably warm temperatures even for early May. In fact it felt more like late June across the area as afternoon highs climbed into the mid to upper 80s! It was definitely the warmest day of 2024 so far in most locations and it’s the warmest temperatures we’ve seen here in Lexington since early October of last year. Unfortunately it doesn’t look like the quiet weather will hold off into Oaks Day and Derby Day.
The same southerly flow that helped push afternoon highs a solid 10 to 15 degrees above average on Thursday will also begin to push moisture into the Ohio Valley as a frontal system moves in from the west. The end result will be scattered rain and thunder throughout the day on Friday so it will be less than ideal conditions for Oaks Day. If you are heading to Churchill Downs, plan for rain on occasion throughout the afternoon and a potentially wet track for the horses. Even if we do see a few breaks in the rain it will be damp overall. With the clouds and rain around, temperatures will be obviously cooler but still mild as we top out into the mid to upper 70s for afternoon highs.
Heading into Derby Day it’s still a bit iffy how the day will play out weather-wise even though we are drawing closer to that forecast period. Much of the data is still wanting to check up the frontal boundary that will move in on Friday and hold it back over the region. This will cause kind of a “squeeze play” as another system approaches from the west with a scheduled arrival into Sunday so the bottom line is I think we are still looking at some shower chances for the Derby Day. It does appear the better chances will be here in Central and Eastern Kentucky with lesser chances back toward Louisville and Churchill Downs but any way you slice it up it looks as if some showers will be around. At least it shouldn’t be a wash-out from start to finish and hopefully things come up dry heading into Saturday evening. Temperatures should continue to top out into the upper 70s for afternoon highs.
As Cinco De Mayo arrives into Sunday, so will our next system so the occasional rain and storm chances will remain. In fact this “unsettled” weather pattern will be a prelude of things to come for much of next week. The combination of an upper low to our north and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico with put the Ohio Valley in the sweet spot for daily rain and storm chances for several days. Of course this shouldn’t be an all day rain on any particular day and temperatures will stay unseasonably warm with highs mainly in the low 80s. Some of the data is indicating we could be set up for some strong to severe storms given the dynamics in place early to mid-next week as a few thunderstorm complexes roll through the region so that’s something we’ll keep an eye on.
ABC 36 HOUR FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mild with increasing clouds. Lows in the low-60s.
FRIDAY: Scattered rain and thunder. Highs in the mid to upper-70s.
FRIDAY NIGHT: More showers and storms. Lows in the low-60s.
