Rain and storm chances set to return into the mid-week

It was another beautiful summer-like day across Central and Eastern Kentucky on Tuesday with a mix of clouds and sunshine and warm afternoon highs into the mid to upper 80s. One big difference over Monday was that you could feel a bit more humidity back around as our winds picked up out of the southwest. With the warmth and more moisture around, a few isolated showers popped up during the afternoon which our in-house model data did a good job of picking up on Monday leading into today. Of course most locations remained dry but unfortunately that’s going to be a thing of the past  as we shift into a more active weather pattern into the second half of this week.

A frontal boundary will move in from the west on Wednesday with much of the data indicating a weakening area of showers and storms diminishing toward daybreak. This will leave some scattered clouds early, but we should get into some sunshine by early afternoon giving the atmosphere a chance to recover as the front draws a bit closer. This will increase our chances for rain and storms with a few of those being on the strong side later in the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area in a Level 2 sever risk (out of 5) on Wednesday with lesser chances as you go southeastward. Damaging winds and some hail will be the main threats with the tornado threat being very low this go around.

This system will be the beginning of a pretty unsettled and active weather pattern heading toward the Memorial Day holiday weekend. The frontal boundary will stretch out and stall out right over the area and with the upper level flow running parallel to the front, there won’t be another to drive it eastward for a few days. This will mean several rounds of showers and storms Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 70s thanks to the clouds and rain around.

Heading into the holiday weekend it definitely appears we’ll see some “back and forth” as the wave train of low pressure centers keeps things a bit active. Saturday is looking decent overall with a few scattered storms possible with highs in the low 80s. It now looks like a stronger area of low pressure will impact the region Sunday with yet another legitimate strong to severe storm threat. The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting parts of Central and Western Kentucky in the extended severe weather outlook for Sunday so we’ll have to watch this closely, especially with plenty of folks traveling, on the lake, etc.

There is some good news at this point for Memorial Day on Monday as much of the model data is now showing Central and Eastern Kentucky in between systems, which would make for a mainly dry holiday. Given that we are a several days away, things could change but at least this is a positive trend toward being dry. With several rounds of moderate to heavy rain over the next several days, localized flooding could be a concern so keep that in mind as we roll into the upcoming holiday weekend.

ABC 36 HOUR FORECAST
TUESDAY NIGHT: A few clouds and mild. Lows in the mid-60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and breezy, best storm chances late. Highs in the mid-80s.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Occasional rain and storms. Lows in the mid-60s.