Major winter storm on tap for the commonwealth this weekend

 

After a chilly start to the day that featured some slick roadways for the morning commute thanks to the leftover moisture and temperatures dropping below freezing, it turned out to be a fairly pleasant day by January standards across Central and Eastern Kentucky. With high pressure in control we saw plenty of sunshine along with afternoon highs into the upper 30s and low 40s. Most importantly it was a quiet day of weather, something that was very much needed considering what’s on the table for the upcoming weekend.

Heading into Friday we’ll transition back to colder temperatures as a dry cold front ushers in the Arctic air-mass, which is going to be a major element for the overall set-up relative to this weekend’s winter storm. After a few peeks of sunshine early, clouds will thicken up as the day wears on but it should be a dry finish to the week. A north breeze will push colder air into the area so don’t look for much recovery in temperatures as afternoon highs hover into the mid-20s in most spots. Friday will be a good day to do any last minute errands and preparations prior to the disruptive winter storm this weekend.

All signs continue to indicate a major winter storm will impact all of Central and Eastern Kentucky over the weekend with significant snowfall expected here in Central and Northern Kentucky with snow initially across the south but the wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet definitely on the table as we progress deeper into the weekend. The model data is starting to line up a bit more as expected as we draw closer to the onset of the event. It appears now that we may see an initial batch of some light accumulating snow during the course of the day on Saturday before the main wave of energy arrives Saturday night and into Sunday. This is when we’ll see the bulk of the wintry weather and conditions will deteriorate for any travel. The point is the system may be slowly down a bit so the Saturday night/Sunday window will be when the heaviest snow/wintry mix may occur.

If you’ve lived around here for any length of time, you know how tricky these systems are and this one is no different. It literally will be a battle between Arctic air at the surface driven in by a stout northeast wind fighting the warmer air just above the surface being pushed our way by a south wind a few thousand feet above the surface. Right now it looks like the column will be cold enough rom top to bottom for an all snow event along the I-64 corridor northward, with areas of Southern and Southeastern Kentucky dealing with snow to begin the event, then the dreaded wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet  getting into Saturday night and Sunday. That’s why forecasting snow totals is very challenging at best and it’s literally a case of where 30 to 40 miles could make a difference between double digit snow amounts and just a few inches of snow with some sleet and ice on top of it. Any change to the forecast track of the upper level energy to our south can and will adjust that line so keep that in mind going forward.

What’s just as important is to focus on the overall impact and major disruption this system is expected to bring to the area, especially when it comes to any travel or activities you may have over the weekend. It doesn’t matter where you are, it’s going to be messy and not a good time to be outside, especially beginning late Saturday so if you may want to make adjustments in that regard. The other part of this to not overlook is the very cold temperatures we’ll be dealing with. Afternoon highs won’t even get out of the teens on Saturday and will struggle into the low to mid-20s on Sunday as the low passes by to our south. Add a brisk wind in there and it will feel even colder than that. Of course a Winter Storm Warning is now out for the entire area through the weekend so due to this high impact winter storm.

So what about snow totals since we are in that window for hard numbers now? Based on the latest data there should be a swatch through the Bluegrass Region and points northward that could legitimately reach the 12″ plus range so again this looks like a legitimate snow maker for Lexington. There will be a gradient of lessening totals for areas just south of Lexington and even more so into Southern Kentucky given the wintry mix potential cutting down on actual snowfall amounts. So as the attached map shows, things ramp down to 8″-10″ just south of Lexington with a much wider range of snow potential between 5″-9″ across far Southern Kentucky due to the wintry mix element and the uncertainty of how far north the warmer air aloft and wintry mix gets. Less warm air overhead means higher snow totals and more warm air aloft means less snow and more sleet/ice. The farther south you go there is a much bigger ‘bust” potential at this point relative to the snow totals because of everything mentioned above. I think the best accumulation potential for far Southern Kentucky may be with the initial snow that arrives Saturday since it’s looking more like the wintry mix is in play now for Sunday. Again, these things are never easy especially with a lot of folks to cover in our viewing area and keep in mind the overall snowfall totals may be increased a bit as we draw closer to event based on how the numbers look the next 24 hours!

I like to use the “multiple children” analogy with bigger snows. For those of you that are blessed to have multiple children, you know there is a big difference between 1 child and 2 children, but you add a 3rd (or more) and it doesn’t make that much of a difference because of all the chaos. Same principle with snow. There is a pretty big difference between a 1″-2″ snow compared to 6″ of snow (or more) when it comes to day to day living. After more than a quarter century of dealing with these events around here, I’ve found that around 6″ of snow on the ground and anything north of that makes it much more difficult to simply move around normal, no matter how much shoveling you do, how hard the road crews work, etc. so I guess my point is that there’s not a huge difference once you get into double digit accumulations because it is so dang disruptive! So sometimes it’s better to focus on the impact as oppose to how much snow we get as there’s not much difference between 10″ and say 15″ if it falls that way. Just food for thought.

With the overall system slowly down, we could see a few leftover snow showers into Monday morning, which would hold temperatures up a touch into the upper single digits and low teens (still pretty frigid) before things settle down completely. That’s when the secondary issue of very cold temperatures heading into Tuesday morning. With skies expected to clear and a fresh, heavy snow on the ground, look for actual air temperatures to drop below zero in spots early Tuesday so that will add insult to injury after this weekend’s expected storm. Even a light breeze will push wind chills well below zero so Cold Weather Advisories are likely during the window early next week. After rebounding into the low 20s Tuesday, another quick clipper system could bring a few snow showers by the middle of next week along with a reinforcing shot of cold Arctic air. Highs will drop back into the teens for highs late next week with morning lows in the single digits as the deep freeze locks in much of next week!

ABC 36 Storm Team 3 Day Forecast

Thursday night: Mostly clear and cold. Lows in the low 20s. Wind: W 5 mph.

Friday: Clouds increase, more cold air arrives. Highs in the mid-20s. Wind: N 5-10 mph.

Friday night: Very cold and breezy, a few flakes late. Lows in the upper single digits and low teens. Wind: NE 10-15 mph.