Major winter storm heads to the commonwealth this weekend

It was the proverbial calm before the storm Friday across Central and Eastern Kentucky with clouds increasing and Arctic air pouring in on the heels of a north wind, thus setting the table for the major winter storm that will impact the entire region this weekend. Temperatures struggle into the mid 20s for afternoon highs here in the Bluegrass with more low to mid-30s down south as it took awhile for colder air to make it that far south.

Before we even get into the significant winter weather expected the next few days, there will be some issues into early Saturday as the Arctic cold settles into the commonwealth. Early morning lows should dip into the upper single digits and low teens and with a stout northeast wind in place, wind chills will fall below zero Saturday morning so a Cold Weather Advisory is out for Central Kentucky through Noon Saturday.

The biggest changes to the forecast is that the latest data continues to show the elevated warmer air nosing farther to the north into Saturday Night and Sunday, which will put Southern and Southeastern Kentucky in line for a more lengthy round of freezing rain and sleet. Ice accretion may be in the quarter to half inch range in that part of the state, which will put a strain on trees and powerlines as a result. With the northerly jog of the warmer air aloft, it does bring the wintry mix potential a bit closer to the I-64 corridor, which could cut into the expected snow totals for areas Lexington and just to the south but it will be a close call with a few miles making a big difference.

The main emphasis going into the weekend is IMPACT and the disruption to your daily routine and moving around. Don’t get fixated on snow totals. This is going to be a messy deal for everyone across the area. No matter whether you end up with heavy snow (which is more likely across the north) or a mix of freezing rain and sleet (which is more likely down south), travel will be extremely hazardous as the weekend progresses and it will be challenging/dangerous to be out and about as things unfold. If you have weekend plans, postpone them for another time. It’s better to be safe at home and let the road crews fight Mother Nature.

So for the particulars and timing, light snow should move in as we roll through Saturday afternoon and this should be the best window for accumulating snow down south with a few inches of snow expected across the board. Heading into Saturday night is when things begin to shift as the warmer air aloft works northward. Just south of I-64 may be the dividing line for mainly snow down to the wintry mix as you go farther south. The wintry mess will continue through Sunday as conditions worsen before everything wraps up into Sunday night. Of course a Winter Storm Warning is out for all of Central and Eastern Kentucky through Monday morning.

We’ve adjusted snowfall totals down slightly given the chances in the set-up. The Bluegrass Region northward should be more in the 8″-10″ range with some localized 12″ totals not out of the question north of Lexington. Totals will taper down with more 7″ to 9″ south of Lexington over a small area before ramping down to roughly 3″-5″ across much of Southern Kentucky. As mentioned earlier, a lot of the snow accumulation comes on the front end with the icing being the bigger issue down that way. Temperatures will be cold on Saturday with teens and low 20s for highs before we see those rebound a little on Sunday with quite a gradient across the area. With the warmer air nosing in down south, parts of Southeastern Kentucky could even surge into the low to mid-30s Sunday while farther north here in the Bluegrass we’ll only manage the mid-20s as the low level Arctic air stays put.

Once things wind down into early next week expect more cold air in place as we dry out for a few days. With a fresh snowpack in place and clearing skies, Tuesday morning should be our coldest with temperatures falling below zero to start the day and dangerously cold wind chills to boot. Another clipper system on Wednesday will bring a few snow showers and some additional cold air late next week. Everyone stay inside if you can this weekend and be safe as we ride out this latest winter storm!

ABC 36 Storm Team 3 Day Forecast

Friday night: A few clouds, breezy and very cold. Lows in the upper single digits and low teens. Wind chills below zero late! Wind: NE 10-15 mph.

Saturday: Breezy and cold, snow arrives. Highs in the mid teens and low-20s. Wind: NE 10-15 mph.

Saturday night: Snow north, wintry mix south. Lows in the low and mid-teens. Wind: NE 5-10 mph.