Heavy rain and flooding threat this weekend; cold snap to follow

Meteorologist Dillon Gaudet has the latest in your full ABC 36 Storm Team forecast

LEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 NEWS NOW) – A cold start to Valentine’s Day across the region, with morning lows in the teens for many, will quickly give way to an active and potentially dangerous weather pattern heading into the weekend. A strong storm system will bring heavy rain, the risk of flash flooding, and even some strong storms, before much colder air moves in Sunday.

Flood Watch in Effect: Widespread 2-4″ Rainfall Expected

The ABC 36 viewing area is under a Flood Watch for the weekend as a significant rain event unfolds. A widespread 2-4 inches of rain is expected, with localized amounts of 4-6 inches possible, particularly across central Kentucky.

There has been a northward shift in the axis of heaviest rainfall, meaning southeastern Kentucky may not see torrential rains for as long as initially thought. However, this shift increases the potential for severe weather in south-central Kentucky. A line of storms Saturday evening could produce strong wind gusts and even an isolated tornado. As of Friday morning, areas south of Lexington remain in a Level 1 (Marginal) Severe Risk, but this may be upgraded later today.

Flooding Concerns: Flash Flooding and River Flooding Likely

The excessive rainfall will lead to both flash flooding and moderate-to-major river flooding, particularly in low-lying areas and near waterways. The Weather Prediction Center has placed most of Kentucky under a Level 3 out of 4 “Moderate” Risk for flash flooding Saturday through Saturday night. If you live in a flood-prone area, you should be prepared for rapidly rising water and potential road closures.

Timing & Impacts

• Friday: A cold but dry day with increasing clouds. Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. Rain moves in overnight.
• Saturday: Heavy rain overspreads the region by morning, with the heaviest rainfall occurring from midday into the evening. A lull in the rain may develop in southeastern Kentucky in the afternoon before another surge arrives with a cold front overnight. Embedded thunderstorms could bring gusty winds and isolated severe weather.
• Sunday: A sharp drop in temperatures follows as a strong cold front sweeps through. Morning showers may mix with snow flurries before ending. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach the upper 20s to low 30s, with a strong northwesterly wind making it feel even colder.

Icy Spots Possible Sunday Night & Early Next Week

As temperatures plunge into the teens Sunday night, any lingering water on roads could freeze, leading to black ice concerns for the Monday morning commute. Colder-than-average temperatures will persist through next week, setting the stage for a potential wintry system late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Stay Weather Aware

This has the potential to be a high-impact weather event, and conditions can change quickly. Keep up with the latest updates from the ABC 36 Storm Team, and be prepared to take action if flooding develops in your area. If you live in a flood-prone location, have an evacuation plan in place and avoid driving through flooded roadways. Stay safe, and we’ll keep you updated as this system unfolds!