Dodging showers and storms through Derby weekend

Friday brought another taste of spring warmth to Central and Eastern Kentucky, with afternoon highs pushing into the upper 70s and low 80s. Gusty breezes and increasing humidity signaled more active weather ahead, and sure enough, the unsettled pattern we’ve been dealing with isn’t quite done with us yet. A developing and broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to sweep through the region Friday evening with damaging winds and large hail being the primary concerns. While the tornado threat remains low, storms could still pack a punch especially where instability and upper-level support align.

Derby Day Disruptions: Rain Gear a Must

Unfortunately, the forecast isn’t looking ideal for Kentucky Derby Saturday. A slow-moving surface low is expected to crawl along a stalled frontal boundary, keeping rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms rotating across the region. While it won’t be an all-out washout, on-and-off rain looks likely through much of the day—so if you’re heading to Churchill Downs or attending a Derby party, rain gear will be your best friend. Cooler air filtering in will hold afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The Storm Prediction Center has placed far Eastern Kentucky under a Level 1 Marginal Risk for severe storms with gusty winds the main threat so that will be the more favorable area for a few stronger storms.

Stubborn Low Keeps Showers Around for Sunday

As we close out the weekend, a pesky upper-level low will camp out over the Ohio Valley, keeping the skies unsettled. Showers will be more scattered on Sunday compared to Saturday, but they’ll still be possible, especially in the afternoon hours as daytime heating kicks in. Highs will stay on the cooler side—only in the low to mid-60s—thanks to persistent cloud cover and cooler air aloft. While it won’t be a complete washout, showers could pop up at just about any time.

A Brief Break Before More Midweek Rain

Looking ahead to the start of the new week, there’s some good news. That upper low will finally begin to lift out Monday into Tuesday, and as it does, shower chances should diminish. Tuesday appears to be the best bet for a dry day with at least partial sunshine and temperatures rebounding into the upper 60s and low 70s. However, by Wednesday, another system looks to swing in from the southwest, bringing a return of scattered showers. This next wave doesn’t appear particularly strong, and any rain looks to be light and spotty for now.