Active and unsettled weather to close out June and kick off July

The stubborn smoke and haze from the Eastern Canadian wildfires hung around again on Thursday despite the wind mixing the air up a bit as our focus shifts to a more active weather pattern in the coming days as the haze scours out to end June. There wasn’t much sunshine to be had as the first in a series of thunderstorm complexes moved by to our west across Western Kentucky before dropping down into Tennessee. The active pattern really ramps up into Friday and Saturday so keep in mind some of the key messages below during that time frame. One of the biggest challenges is the timing and placement of the storms as the model data notoriously has a difficult time honing in on these thunderstorm clusters.

Based on the latest data we should see a few scattered storms during the early hours of Friday, a quick break in the morning which will allow for some heating and add to the instability before another round of storms rolls through. Highs could surge into the low 90s with heat indices making it feel even hotter! Ironically with a boundary stalled to out northwest and waves of energy riding along it, we could see a repeat performance to welcome July on Saturday with another cluster of storms with strong to severe potential. BOTH Friday and Saturday will feature a Level 2 severe risk (out of 5) for all of Central and Eastern Kentucky with damaging winds, heavy rain and some hail being the main threats. The tornado threat is low but there is always the chance of a brief spin-up. Just look at how similar the scenario is below for the final day of June and the first day of July.

Unfortunately the unsettled and stormy weather will continue on Sunday as the stalled out front begins to move eastward along with another wave of low pressure. Even though it is a “long” holiday weekend for some folks with Independence Day on Tuesday, it won’t be the best start as our best chance for widespread rain and storms should be Sunday and lingering into Monday as the front drops to our south. Rainfall totals over the next several days could range from 2″-4″ with higher amounts where the heaviest rain is. This could lead to some flooding issues so keep that in mind. It is still looking at little better as we head toward the 4th of July on Tuesday.

ABC 36 HOUR FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT: Warm with scattered storms. Lows in the upper-60s.
FRIDAY: Hot and humid with more storms. Highs in the mid to upper-80s to low-90s.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Warm and muggy with a few storms Lows in the low 70s.