A decent start to the holiday weekend but the severe threat still looms for Sunday

It tuned out to be a fairly nice finish to the week with some good weather for ‘getaway day” as folks hit the roadways for the long Memorial Day weekend. After some patchy dense fog to begin the day, we saw plenty of sunshine before a few high, thin clouds moved in with thunderstorms out to our west. This bonus sunshine helped push afternoon highs into the low 80s in most locations so it felt pretty good outside, even with the humidity being a touch high. We could see a few Friday evening thunderstorms develop ahead of a weakening frontal boundary but it looks mainly dry overnight and that should carry over into Saturday.

With the aforementioned boundary  basically washing out over the area, it should be a decent start to the holiday weekend with sunshine and afternoon highs climbing into the low and mid-80s. The “unofficial start of summer” will feel like with some humidity around adding a muggy feel to the air. It should be the type of set-up that we see during the heart of summer with a few isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms cranking up with the afternoon warmth so the coverage shouldn’t be widespread. In fact some of the data wants to hold off on any storms until later in the evening. Any way you slice it up most folks should enjoy a mainly dry Saturday for all your outdoor activities but Sunday is going to be a totally different ballgame.

As we have mentioned that last several days we are still on track for a possible organized severe weather outbreak here in the Ohio Valley from Sunday afternoon into the early hours of Monday. Based on the latest data there may be 3 separate rounds of storms, with the last 2 bringing us the greatest threat. Round 1 could be storms firing along the warm front early in the afternoon. Round 2 could be a few individual storms firing up ahead of the main line of storms late Sunday evening (with these being typically problematic being out on their own in a warm, moist environment) and Round 3 coming into the early hours of Monday as a squall line moves through along the front.

Overnight events are always concerning, particularly during the heart of a long holiday weekend when many people are enjoying outdoor activities like being at the lake, camping, etc. This weekend you need to stay weather aware and have a plan! Especially given that some folks check out late Friday and essentially go “off the grid” for the long weekend, which can be a bad combination in this potential scenario on Sunday. Wherever you may be this weekend, review your safety plan and know where to go in the event a warning is issued, especially if you aren’t at home and in an unfmaliar location. Have a way to get your alerts as remote areas can be difficult with cell service/reception so keep that in mind.

Right now the Storm Prediction Center has Western and parts of Central Kentucky in a Level 3 severe risk (out of 5) with it ramping down to a Level 2 here in the Bluegrass and Level 1 in Eastern Kentucky. ALL modes of severe weather, including tornadoes are possible with this system. We are still a few days out and the risk areas will probably get adjusted as we get closer to Sunday. Our area could easily end up in a higher threat level so continue to check for updates through the weekend. Of course we’ll be here all weekend to keep you posted on-air and on-line for all the latest updates. A few leftover showers are possible Memorial Day but severe weather is not. We should finally begin to dry out next week.

ABC 36 HOUR FORECAST
FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, isolated storms. Lows in the mid-60s.
SATURDAY: Warm with isolated P.M. storms. Highs in the low to mid-80s.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and mild. Lows in the mid-60s.