Rain chances hang tough heading toward Derby weekend

We kicked off May on a breezy and unseasonably warm note across Central and Eastern Kentucky as gusty southwest winds pushed temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s on Thursday. But the warmth came with a familiar trade-off: scattered thunderstorms, some of which once again packed a punch with gusty winds and small hail. It was a stormy end to April and unfortunately the unsettled weather pattern is showing no signs of letting up as we head into the first weekend of May—including Oaks Day and Derby Day.

Oaks Day: More Storms, Mild Temps, and Rain Gear a Must

On Friday, a frontal boundary will stall out over the Commonwealth, providing the necessary focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop once again. Moisture and upper-level energy will be in place, keeping rain chances elevated through the day and into the evening. Temperatures will remain mild, with highs in the upper 70s, especially for areas south of the stalled front.

There is a severe storm threat once again with damaging winds and large hail as the main hazards. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Bluegrass Region down into Southern Kentucky in a Level 2 (Slight Risk) for severe storms on Friday while areas from Lexington to the north face a Level 1 (Marginal Risk). So if you’re heading to Churchill Downs for Kentucky Oaks, take the rain gear—you’ll likely need it at some point during the day.

Derby Day: Upper-Level Low Brings a Cool, Damp Setup

Saturday’s Kentucky Derby forecast is looking increasingly dreary. An upper-level low pressure system will stall out over the Ohio Valley, keeping clouds and scattered showers around throughout Derby Day. While not a total washout, it’s shaping up to be a cloudy and damp Saturday, with just enough instability for the occasional non-severe thunderstorm.

Afternoon highs will take a hit, only reaching the mid-60s, which is below normal for early May. Pack the rain gear once again if you’re headed to the track—and maybe an extra layer, too.

Extended Outlook: Unsettled Pattern Sticks Around

Unfortunately, this unsettled weather pattern won’t break quickly. The upper-level low may linger into early next week, keeping daily shower chances and cooler-than-average temperatures in place. While rain chances should become more isolated by Monday, clouds and a few scattered showers are still possible into midweek.

The good news? As we move toward midweek, the upper system may finally get pushed east, allowing for a warming trend with highs returning closer to the 70s and drier conditions making a comeback—at least briefly.