Winter weather exits as flooding concerns loom through the weekend

LEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 NEWS NOW) – A messy weather pattern is setting up for the next several days, bringing multiple rounds of rain and a significant flooding threat by the weekend. In the short term, a weak system will keep periods of rain around today, with the heaviest amounts focused across southern and southeastern Kentucky. A stronger system late Friday into Saturday is expected to bring widespread heavy rain and potential flash flooding, with 2.5-5” of rainfall possible across the region.

Freezing Early Ahead of More Rain Today

If you’re heading out early this morning, watch for slick spots in parts of central and northern Kentucky. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM for lingering light freezing drizzle, mainly along and north of I-64. Some untreated roads, bridges, and overpasses could be icy.

Otherwise, temperatures will climb through the day, with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s in southern Kentucky and low 40s across northern Kentucky. Scattered rain showers will continue off and on, with an additional 0.5”-1.5″ of rainfall possible. The heaviest totals today through tonight will be across southeastern Kentucky, where localized amounts of 1.5” are possible. With recent snowmelt, isolated flooding issues cannot be ruled out in low-lying areas.

Colder Air Returns Thursday

As the system exits tonight, colder air will filter in, dropping lows into the upper 20s to low 30s by Thursday morning. A few light snow showers or flurries could mix in at times during the day, but little to no accumulation is expected. Highs will struggle to reach the mid-30s, and wind chills will stay in the 20s. Valentine’s Day on Friday starts off cold, with lows in the upper teens and low 20s, but skies will be dry with increasing clouds ahead of our next system.

Significant Flooding Threat This Weekend

All eyes are on a powerful storm system set to impact the region Friday night through Saturday night, bringing the potential for flooding rains.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed most of Kentucky under a “Moderate Risk” (Level 3 of 4) for Flash Flooding on Saturday, meaning there’s at least a 40% chance of flash flooding occurring within 25 miles of any given location.

Rainfall totals:

• 2” to 4” across most of Kentucky
• Locally higher amounts over 4-5” possible in southeastern Kentucky

With already saturated ground and swollen rivers, this system will likely cause both flash flooding and river flooding concerns. Flood Watches will likely be issued later this week, and if you live in flood-prone areas, now is the time to prepare. In addition to the heavy rain, gusty winds and even a few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday night as the low-pressure system moves through.

Much Colder Behind the System

A strong cold front will sweep through early Sunday, dropping temperatures rapidly into the 20s and 30s. As moisture lingers, some light snow could mix in on the backside of the system. Colder air settles in for early next week, with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s. Another light snow chance may develop by midweek.

Stay with the ABC 36 Storm Team for continued updates as we track this potentially significant flood threat into the weekend!

ABC 36 Hour Forecast

Today: Cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs in the low 40s to the low 50s(coldest north, warmest south).
Tonight: Heavy rain exits to the south & east, turning colder. Lows in the upper 20 and low 30s.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy &  chilly, stray flurries. Highs in the 30s.