Weather Impact Day: Significant severe weather possible Friday

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few strong tornadoes possible

May 16th Severe ThreatLEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 NEWS NOW) – We are in for a volatile weather day across central and eastern Kentucky. Friday is an ABC 36 Storm Team Weather IMPACT Day due to the threat for significant severe weather, including the potential for hurricane-force wind gusts, a few strong tornadoes, and large hail. The atmosphere is primed, and multiple waves of storms are expected throughout the day, with the most significant weather likely arriving late this afternoon through the evening.

A Dangerous Setup for Severe Storms

We’ve already seen scattered storms early this morning, and while some of those produced hail in parts of the region, they were just a preview of what’s to come. A potent mix of ingredients is coming together ahead of a strong cold front sweeping in from the west. That front will collide with a very warm, humid, and unstable air mass that’s been building over the region.

Expect discrete supercells to develop late this afternoon, particularly after 4 PM. These storms could quickly become severe, capable of producing:

  • Damaging winds in excess of 75 mph
  • Very large hail (possibly 2 inches or more)
  • Tornadoes – some of which could be strong

By evening, those supercells may organize into a powerful squall line  that races east across the Commonwealth. This will bring a widespread damaging wind threat, with embedded QLCS-type tornadoes possible. These bowing segments could pack wind gusts similar to what you’d see in a low-end hurricane.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 4 out of 5 “Moderate Risk” for severe weather for much of central and eastern Kentucky, including Lexington and the I-75 corridor. This is a rare and serious designation that underscores the potential for a regional severe weather outbreak.

Timeline: When Will the Worst Weather Hit?

  • Morning–Midday: Scattered storms possible, mainly west of I-75. Some may produce hail, but these storms are not expected to be the most severe.
  • Late Afternoon: Discrete supercells begin firing, especially along and west of I-75. These will have the greatest tornado and large hail threat.
  • Evening (6 PM – Midnight): A line of severe storms surges across the region, bringing widespread wind damage and potential spin-up tornadoes.
  • Overnight (After Midnight): Storms exit to the east, with improvement expected heading into Saturday morning.

What You Should Do

We cannot stress this enough: Today is a day to be Weather Aware. Have multiple ways to receive warnings, including a NOAA Weather Radio and wireless alerts enabled on your phone. Power outages and downed trees will be possible due to the strong winds.

If a Tornado Warning is issued, take shelter immediately in a sturdy building, preferably in a basement or interior room away from windows.

Weekend Outlook: Much Better Weather Ahead

After the overnight storms clear out, Saturday will bring a big improvement. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with breezy conditions and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Sunday looks quiet for most, but southern Kentucky may see a few showers sneak in as a warm front begins lifting north.

Next Week: More Storms Before a Big Cool Down

The active weather pattern doesn’t end with today. A return to stormy conditions is expected Monday through Wednesday, with another round or two of strong storms possible early in the week. Beyond that, signs point to a noticeable cool down by late next week, as a stronger upper-level trough pushes in.

Bottom Line: This is a potentially dangerous weather day, especially from late afternoon into tonight. Stay tuned to ABC 36 Storm Team throughout the day for updates. We’ll be here tracking every storm and bringing you the latest as it unfolds.

Stay safe and stay weather aware.

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