Warming up Monday ahead of a Tuesday severe storm risk

Temperatures return to the low 80s Monday ahead of a strong-to-severe storm risk on Tuesday

April 28, 2025

Dillon Gaudet,

LEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 NEWS NOW) – Temperatures are on the rise as we kick off the new workweek! After a comfortable start to the morning, Monday afternoon will turn quite warm, with highs reaching into the low 80s across central and eastern Kentucky. It will stay dry today, but today’s warmth is an important setup for a more active weather pattern starting Tuesday.

Tonight, expect a warm and breezy evening under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will only fall into the low 60s overnight, a sign of the more humid air working into the region ahead of our next weather-maker.

Watching for Strong-to-Severe Storms Tuesday

Tuesday starts off dry and very warm, with highs once again soaring into the low to mid-80s. However, storm chances will start to climb during the afternoon and evening hours as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Kentucky, including Lexington, under a Level 2 Severe Risk (Slight Risk), with a Level 1 Risk (Marginal Risk) extending into parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky.

What to expect Tuesday afternoon and evening:

Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern.
Isolated large hail is also possible.
Storms could organize into a line, especially later in the day, enhancing the risk for widespread wind damage.
Some localized heavy rainfall is also possible with stronger storms.

While the best chance for severe weather will be during the late afternoon into the early nighttime hours Tuesday, a few showers and rumbles of thunder could linger overnight into early Wednesday morning as the front stalls nearby.

Wet and Stormy Midweek Pattern

Wednesday will stay unsettled as the stalled front meanders across the region. Showers and storms are likely at times throughout the day, but the severe weather threat looks lower compared to Tuesday. Still, any heavier showers could lead to pockets of localized flooding due to repeated rounds of rain.

By Thursday, another system approaches from the west. Warmer and more humid air will surge back northward across Kentucky, setting the stage for another round of potentially stronger thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday night.
While there is no formal severe risk issued yet for Thursday, don’t be surprised if that changes — the setup is worth keeping an eye on for gusty storms and heavy rainfall potential.

If you’re heading to Churchill Downs for ‘Thurby’ on Thursday, plan for rain chances and possible storms during the day.

Derby Weekend: Much Better!

The soggy pattern breaks just in time for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday, but timing will be key.

Louisville and areas west will likely dry out earlier Friday, while Lexington and points east could still deal with some rain and storms through the morning and midday before improving by afternoon.
Derby Day (Saturday) looks fantastic! High pressure will build in, bringing dry conditions, seasonably cooler temperatures (upper 60s to near 70°), and lots of sunshine for the 151st Running of the Kentucky Derby.

The pleasant, dry weather sticks around into Sunday as well, making it a great weekend for outdoor plans across central and eastern Kentucky!