Strong storms and heavy rain set to impact Kentucky late tonight through Thursday

Damaging winds, flooding concerns, and up to 2 inches of rain possible as a powerful June storm system moves through

Warm and Humid Conditions Return Across Kentucky

After another beautiful start to the day with plenty of sunshine, temperatures are quickly warming across Central and Eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Highs are expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s, and unlike the past couple of days, you’ll definitely notice the humidity making a comeback.

Southerly winds are pulling warmer, moisture-rich air back into the Ohio Valley ahead of a powerful storm system developing across the Great Lakes. It will also be a windy afternoon, with gusts frequently reaching 30 to 40 mph at times, even outside of any thunderstorms.

Despite the increasing humidity, most of the daylight hours will remain dry with a mix of sunshine and clouds.

Quiet Through the Evening Before Storms Arrive Overnight

This evening will begin dry across much of the region, but attention quickly turns to a strong cold front approaching from the northwest.

A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and organize well to our northwest before pushing into Kentucky during the overnight hours and early Thursday morning. This system is associated with an unusually strong area of low pressure for mid-June, helping create an environment favorable for strong storms.

Damaging Winds Main Threat Overnight

The primary concern with tonight’s storms will be damaging straight-line winds. The strongest storms are expected across southern Indiana, but strong to severe storms may still occur as far south as the Western Kentucky and Bluegrass Parkways overnight.

While the tornado threat remains very low, it is not zero, we will continue to monitor the possibility of a brief spin-up tornado within the line of storms, particularly if localized areas of rotation develop along the advancing squall line.

Large hail is not expected to be a widespread concern, but an isolated hail report cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.

Current timing places the greatest storm threat between approximately 1 AM and 3 AM north of the Ohio River, with storms reaching Central Kentucky between 4 AM and 7 AM Thursday morning.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Concerns Increase Thursday

The weather story doesn’t end once the initial line of storms moves through.

The cold front is expected to slow dramatically and may stall across portions of Kentucky on Thursday. As a result, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop throughout the day, especially across central and southern Kentucky.

With tropical-level moisture surging into the region, rainfall rates could become very heavy at times. Forecast moisture levels are near the top of what we typically see for this time of year, creating an environment capable of producing efficient rainfall.

Many locations could receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain, with locally higher totals possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. This rainfall will certainly help ongoing drought conditions across southern Kentucky, but it could also create localized flooding and flash flooding concerns.

The greatest flooding risk currently appears to be across south-central Kentucky where storms may repeatedly track over the same locations.

Drying Out Just in Time for Father’s Day Weekend

The good news is that conditions should gradually improve by Friday as the cold front finally pushes east of the region.

Cloud cover will decrease through the day Friday, with drier air beginning to filter back into Kentucky. Temperatures will settle back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The Father’s Day weekend forecast continues to look encouraging. Saturday appears dry with sunshine and seasonable temperatures in the mid 80s. Another weather system may approach by Sunday, bringing the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but much of the weekend should feature pleasant summer weather.

ABC 36 Storm Team 36-Hour Forecast

Wednesday: Warm, humid, and windy with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday Night: Strong to severe thunderstorms move into the area after midnight. Damaging winds are the primary threat, with heavy rainfall and a very low tornado risk. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.