Significant severe weather threat to end the week

Heat and humidity arrive Thursday ahead of an ABC 36 Storm Team Weather Impact Day Friday

LEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 NEWS NOW) – Big changes are unfolding across central and eastern Kentucky as we transition into an active and potentially dangerous weather pattern to end the week. Summer-like heat and humidity are firmly in place today, but all eyes are on a developing storm system that could bring a significant severe weather outbreak to much of the region by Friday.

Thursday: Warm, Muggy, and Mostly “Capped” & Storm Threat Remains Low Today

Much of the day today will be quiet despite a summer-like feel. Temperatures will soar into the mid-80s under a mix of sun and clouds. With dew points climbing into the 60s, it will feel quite muggy outside this afternoon.

We’ve been talking about “the cap” all week, that layer of warm air aloft acting like a lid on storms. It’s still likely to hold firm today, and that will suppress widespread thunderstorm development during the afternoon and early evening hours. That said, if (and it’s a big if) a storm can break through that cap late in the day, it could become severe quickly, with large hail or damaging winds possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas northwest of Lexington in a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for severe weather today. Areas south and east of Lexington, including much of eastern Kentucky, are in a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal Risk). Overall, the odds of severe weather today are low, but not zero — especially heading into the evening and overnight hours.

Friday: ABC 36 Storm Team Weather Impact Day — All Severe Hazards Possible

Friday is going to be the main event. The ingredients are coming together for a potentially significant severe weather event across central and eastern Kentucky.

Much of the region is under a Level 3 out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) for severe weather Friday afternoon through Friday night. The Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted a “Significant Risk” area for both damaging winds and tornadoes over parts of the ABC 36 viewing area.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Damaging Winds: A squall line of storms will likely move through later in the day into the overnight hours. These storms could produce widespread wind gusts of 60 to 75+ mph — potentially hurricane force in localized areas.

• Tornadoes: Isolated to scattered supercells are possible ahead of the main line. These storms will need to be watched very closely — the setup supports strong tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) in central Kentucky westward, particularly if those storms remain off on their own.

• Large Hail: While the highest hail risk is centered just west of us, we can’t rule out hail up to 2″ in diameter in any strong supercells.

• Flash Flooding: Torrential rainfall rates may lead to localized flash flooding, especially in low-lying or flood-prone areas. The entire area is under a Level 2 out of 4 Slight Risk for flash flooding.

Timing remains a bit uncertain, but storms may begin firing as early as late morning or early afternoon Friday if the atmosphere destabilizes quickly. The most widespread and intense activity is expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours, with the threat potentially lingering into early Saturday morning.

If tonight’s storms are limited or fizzle quickly, that could allow Friday’s atmosphere to destabilize further increasing the risk for stronger supercells earlier in the day.

What You Need To Do:

• Stay Weather Aware — have multiple ways to receive alerts, especially Friday evening into Friday night.

• Review your severe weather safety plan now.

• If you live in a mobile home or flood-prone area, have a backup shelter plan.

• Stay tuned to the ABC 36 Storm Team for updates throughout the day and night.

Looking Ahead: Calmer Weekend, Storm Risk Returns Next Week

The good news? Once the cold front clears the area early Saturday, we’ll enjoy a break from the stormy weather. Saturday looks breezy and seasonable with highs in the upper 70s, and Sunday will be pleasant as well.

More storm chances are likely to return by the middle of next week, so we’re not quite done with this active pattern just yet.

Stay safe and stay connected — the ABC 36 Storm Team will be here with updates all day long.
— Meteorologist Dillon Gaudet | ABC 36 Storm Team