Near-record warmth Wednesday, severe threat looms for the weekend

Temperatures will make a run at the mid-to-upper 70s on Wednesday afternoon

LEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 NEWS NOW) – Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for central and eastern Kentucky as we flirt with record highs this afternoon. Highs will soar into the mid-to-upper 70s across the region, with Lexington and Frankfort coming close to their daily records. Lexington’s March 12th record high is 77°, set back in 1911, while Frankfort’s record is 78° from 1990. A few locations could even briefly touch 80°.

It will also be another breezy day with southwesterly winds gusting between 20-25 mph. The combination of gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity levels (dropping into the 20-30% range) will elevate the fire danger risk, particularly across southern and southeastern Kentucky. If you have outdoor burning plans, reconsider, as conditions remain favorable for rapid fire spread.

Into Thursday: More Clouds, Isolated Rain Chances

Clouds will gradually increase tonight, helping to limit the overnight cool-down. Most locations will settle into the upper 40s and low 50s by Thursday morning. A weakening upper-level disturbance will move through on Thursday, bringing an isolated chance for a shower or thunderstorm. However, with dry air still in place, any rainfall amounts should remain light—generally less than a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will stay warm, with highs once again in the 70s.

Friday: Warmest Day of the Week Before the Storms Arrive

A strengthening storm system will begin to take shape late Friday, ushering in strong southerly winds that could push highs to near 80°. Wind gusts could reach 30-40 mph at times as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. Fire danger may remain elevated if enough dry air mixes down to the surface.

Saturday: Significant Severe Weather and Heavy Rain Threat

Confidence is increasing in a potent storm system impacting the region this weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the ABC 36 viewing area under at least a Level 2 (Slight) severe risk for Saturday into Saturday night, with all modes of severe weather possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes.

Two main rounds of storms are expected:

• Early Friday Night to Saturday Morning: A line of strong-to-severe storms will likely move into Kentucky from the west. Wind shear will be impressive, supporting the potential for damaging straight-line winds and even a few spin-up tornadoes. However, instability levels are uncertain, and the storms may weaken as they move east.
• Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night: A second, more intense wave of storms will develop as instability increases. This round could feature supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. Severe weather risks will extend into the evening before transitioning into a heavy rain threat overnight.

Along with severe storms, heavy rainfall is expected. A widespread 1-3” of rain is forecast from Friday night through Sunday, with locally higher amounts of 2-4” possible in stronger storms. Flooding issues, including flash flooding, will need to be monitored closely.

Sunday and Beyond: Turning Cooler

Behind the system, temperatures will drop back toward seasonal levels. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s, with lingering showers possible. A much calmer pattern returns for early next week, with temperatures rebounding slightly by midweek.

Stay weather aware as we approach the weekend, and be sure to check back for updates as the severe weather setup continues to evolve.