Near-record warmth before strong storms move in on Wednesday

Warm, breezy conditions today

A surge of warm, moist air continues moving into the Ohio Valley early Tuesday, bringing increasing cloud cover and scattered showers across the Bluegrass region. The rain will continue to spread through the mid-late morning.

A few isolated thunderstorms may develop, especially west of Interstate 65, though severe weather is not expected during this initial round. Showers should gradually diminish by early afternoon.

Clouds will likely linger through much of the morning, but breaks in the overcast should develop later in the day as lower-level moisture begins to mix out. With breezy south to southwest winds continuing, temperatures are expected to surge well above normal. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s, putting record temperatures in jeopardy across several locations in central Kentucky.

Most areas should remain dry through the afternoon and evening, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, particularly across southern Kentucky.

Storm chances increase late tonight and Wednesday

A much more organized weather system will begin approaching the region overnight as a large storm system develops across the central United States. Ahead of the system, a broad warm and humid air mass will remain in place across Kentucky, with dewpoints climbing into the 60s.

Early in the night, a strong layer of warm air aloft will likely prevent storms from developing locally. However, after midnight, increasing energy moving into the Ohio Valley may be enough to break that cap and allow thunderstorms to develop, especially across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky toward daybreak Wednesday.

If storms form overnight, they could become strong, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.

Strong storms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening

Attention then turns to Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches the region. The amount of severe weather will depend largely on how much storm activity develops earlier in the day.

If morning storms are widespread, they could limit how much the atmosphere destabilizes before the front arrives. However, if storm coverage remains limited early, the environment could become more favorable for a stronger line of storms ahead of the cold front.

In that scenario, a line of storms could sweep across the Bluegrass between roughly mid-afternoon and late evening

A level 2 out of 5 Severe Weather Risk exists for the entirety of the Bluegrass for Wednesday. The primary threat would be damaging wind gusts, though a few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out along the line. Stay weather aware and have ways to receive weather alerts

Cooler air arrives late week

After the front moves through Wednesday night, rain showers may linger briefly before cooler air spreads into the region. Temperatures will drop sharply overnight, with lows falling into the 30s and lower 40s by Thursday morning.

Thursday will feel noticeably cooler with highs only reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s under gradually clearing skies.

Quieter weather returns before another system

Conditions should remain relatively calm Friday and Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds and milder temperatures returning to the 60s.

Another storm system could approach the region late in the weekend, bringing gusty winds and another chance for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday into early next week. Cooler temperatures may follow that system as the pattern shifts again across the Ohio Valley.