Another day of showers and storms Tuesday ahead of a late week strong-to-severe storm threat
Expect off and on showers and storms for your Tuesday
LEXINGTON, Ky. (ABC 36 STORM TEAM) – More off an on rain showers will be in the forecast for your Tuesday. This setup looks a lot like what we saw Monday — hit-or-miss rain, periods of dry weather, and occasional heavier downpours. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 70s. While we’re not expecting widespread severe weather, a few of the storms could produce brief heavy rain, some gusty winds, and lightning. Any stronger cell may be slow-moving, so localized downpours will be something to watch, especially in low-lying or poor drainage areas.
This unsettled weather sticks around tonight with lingering shower chances, especially through the evening, before tapering off after sunset.
Breaking the Pattern Midweek, But Heat and Storms Follow
Wednesday brings the beginning of a shift in the pattern. As the upper-level low responsible for our daily rain chances begins to weaken and move northeast, we’ll see fewer showers, especially west of I-75. That said, we can’t rule out a few afternoon pop-up storms, especially across eastern counties.
By Thursday, warmer air starts surging in, and that means we’ll crank up the heat. Temperatures are expected to soar into the mid to possibly upper 80s Thursday afternoon. Factor in the humidity, and it’s going to feel quite muggy — potentially the warmest day of the year so far for many spots across the Bluegrass.
With that warmth comes a growing potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted most of central and eastern Kentucky in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms. This initial wave may be triggered by an upstream complex developing across Illinois or Indiana and sliding southeast into our region overnight.
Stronger Storms Possible Friday Into Friday Night
The bigger concern for organized severe weather arrives Friday afternoon into Friday night as another disturbance approaches and interacts with a stalled boundary in the region. With continued warm and humid air in place, and strong winds aloft, conditions could support strong to severe thunderstorms — possibly in clusters or even a squall line.
The Storm Prediction Center’s extended outlook has placed all of central Kentucky in a severe weather risk area for this period. While some forecast uncertainty remains — particularly regarding how Thursday night’s activity may influence storm potential Friday — confidence is increasing that we could see impactful storms to close out the workweek.
Damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain will all be possible with these storms, and a brief spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out in any organized line segments.
Stay Weather Aware through the end of the week. Conditions are trending toward multiple rounds of storms, and some could be strong to severe. Make sure you have ways to receive warnings, especially overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
By Saturday, a temporary lull in activity is expected as that system exits. We could still see a few lingering showers, especially early, but overall conditions should begin to stabilize. Temperatures trend closer to normal this weekend, with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.
Another chance for scattered storms could return later Sunday into Monday, but confidence in the timing and coverage of that next round is still low for now.
