Heat and humidity build before strong storms arrive Monday evening

Hot and humid weather continues across Kentucky Monday before strong to severe thunderstorms arrive during the evening with damaging winds and heavy rainfall possible.

Hot and Humid Start to the Week

We started Monday with a mix of sunshine and clouds, along with some areas of patchy dense fog after recent rainfall. The fog has since lifted, and we are seeing more sunshine break through as temperatures quickly warm this afternoon.

Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s and lower 90s across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Humidity remains very high as well, making it feel even hotter outside.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas generally along and west of Interstate 65, where afternoon heat index values could climb into the 105 to 110 degree range. While locations farther east may stay below advisory criteria, it will still feel very hot and muggy across the entire region.

If you are spending time outside this afternoon, make sure to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning and limit strenuous activities during the hottest part of the day.

Strong to Severe Storms Arrive This Evening

Our attention quickly turns to the northwest later this afternoon as clusters of thunderstorms develop around the Great Lakes and begin moving southeast toward the Ohio Valley.

The atmosphere across Kentucky will become very unstable by late afternoon and early evening, giving approaching storms plenty of energy to work with.

The main concern will be damaging straight-line winds. Some storms could produce wind gusts of 45 mph or greater, while isolated stronger storms could produce significantly higher gusts.

The current timing brings storms into northern portions of the region roughly between 7 and 10 p.m., before pushing farther south across Central Kentucky between about 8 p.m. and midnight.

Damaging Winds Are the Primary Threat

Damaging winds will be the biggest concern with tonight’s storms, especially if thunderstorms organize into a larger complex as they move southeast.

A few locations could experience significant wind gusts capable of bringing down trees and power lines. Frequent lightning and torrential rainfall will also accompany the stronger storms.

There is also an isolated hail threat, although damaging winds remain the primary severe-weather concern.

Because the atmosphere contains plenty of moisture, thunderstorms will also be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short period of time. Localized flash flooding could develop in locations that receive repeated heavy downpours.

Make sure you have multiple ways to receive weather alerts tonight, especially since some storms could arrive after sunset.

Storms Linger Into Early Tuesday

Some showers and thunderstorms may linger into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through the region.

The strongest storm threat should gradually shift east as the morning progresses, although a strong storm cannot be completely ruled out early in the day.

Southern and southwestern Kentucky will stay ahead of the front the longest, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday. Heat index values could once again approach Heat Advisory criteria in those locations before cooler and drier air finally arrives.

Much Better Weather Arrives Midweek

Once the cold front clears the region Tuesday, we will finally get a break from both the extreme humidity and storm chances.

Wednesday through Friday is looking much quieter with plenty of sunshine and noticeably lower humidity. Afternoon highs will settle into the mid to upper 80s, while dew points fall into the lower 60s.

That means even though temperatures will remain warm, it will feel significantly more comfortable outside compared to the muggy weather we’ve experienced recently.

Overnight temperatures will also become more pleasant, generally falling into the 60s.

Storm Chances Return This Weekend

The dry stretch may come to an end as we head into the weekend.

Another disturbance is expected to move toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Friday evening and continuing through Saturday and Sunday.

There are still plenty of details to work out with this system, but the slow-moving nature of the disturbance and abundant moisture could eventually lead to localized heavy rainfall concerns.

For now, enjoy the quieter and less humid stretch arriving during the middle of the week.

ABC 36 Storm Team 36-Hour Forecast

Monday: Hot and very humid with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat index values could reach 105 to 110 degrees west of I-65. Strong to severe thunderstorms develop this evening, with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and isolated hail possible.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Damaging winds and torrential rainfall remain the primary threats before storms gradually weaken overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday: Lingering morning showers and thunderstorms gradually move east. Southern Kentucky could still reach the lower 90s before the cold front passes. Conditions turn drier and less humid later in the day, with highs ranging from the mid-80s north to around 90 degrees south.