Sunshine gives way to increasing storm chances late today as heavy rain threat builds into the weekend

Isolated storms develop Thursday before a wetter Friday, while flooding concerns increase and summer heat returns with triple-digit heat indices next week.

A Warm and Mostly Dry Start to Thursday

After another pleasant start to the day, much of Central Kentucky is enjoying sunshine and warming temperatures. Northern portions of the viewing area woke up with mostly sunny skies, and temperatures are climbing quickly into the middle 80s this afternoon.

While today won’t be a washout, conditions will begin to change later in the day as a stalled frontal boundary approaches from the north. Most communities across North Central Kentucky will stay dry through much of the afternoon, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin developing later today, especially along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor. Farther south, only a few stray showers are expected during the evening.

The overall severe weather threat today remains fairly low because atmospheric forcing is somewhat limited. However, any storms that develop will have plenty of moisture available, meaning locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

Flooding Concerns Increase Tonight

Any showers and storms that develop this evening should gradually weaken overnight as daytime heating fades. Even so, areas north of I-64 could pick up between one and two inches of rainfall, with isolated locations receiving even higher amounts where storms repeatedly move over the same areas.

Because of the saturated ground from recent rainfall, flooding concerns are beginning to increase. A Flood Watch is now in effect for portions of southern Indiana and the Louisville Metro, and additional watches could be issued if heavier rain shifts farther south over the next couple of days.

Friday Could Bring Heavy Rain and A Few Strong Storms

The weather becomes much more active on Friday as another disturbance rides along the stalled front.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the day and into Friday night. While a few storms could become strong enough to produce gusty winds and even a very isolated tornado, the primary concern will once again be heavy rainfall and flooding.

Forecast moisture levels will be exceptionally high, allowing storms to produce very efficient rainfall rates. With winds steering storms along the same frontal boundary, repeated rounds of heavy rain could develop over the same locations, increasing the threat for localized flooding.

Unsettled Weather Continues Into the Weekend

Rain chances aren’t going away just yet.

Saturday will remain somewhat unsettled, although exactly where storms develop is still somewhat uncertain. Some locations could stay dry for much of the day, while others could see scattered afternoon thunderstorms develop with daytime heating.

Because the atmosphere will remain very humid and storms will move slowly, any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing torrential downpours and localized flooding.

Another disturbance may bring one final round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday before conditions begin improving later Sunday.

Summer Heat Makes a Comeback Next Week

Once this weekend’s active weather pattern finally moves out, summer heat and humidity will quickly return.

High pressure is expected to build across the eastern United States early next week, bringing mostly dry weather along with steadily increasing temperatures.

Afternoon highs are forecast to climb into the low and middle 90s by Monday through Wednesday. Combined with increasing humidity, heat index values will likely climb into the triple digits, especially west of Interstate 65 on Monday before expanding across much of Kentucky by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Confidence continues to increase that portions of the area may need Heat Advisories next week as several consecutive days of dangerous heat and humidity develop.

ABC 36 Storm Team 36-Hour Forecast

Thursday: Partly sunny and warm. Highs in the mid 80s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late, mainly along and north of I-64.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall will be possible, especially north of I-64. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall, flooding concerns, and a few strong storms are possible. Highs in the lower to middle 80s.