Thursday’s weather is the calm before the weekend winter storm
Closer to average day ahead
Thursday starts with a cold front pushing to the east and High Pressure building in the northwest. This combination brings in a light western breeze and temperatures that are slightly below average.
Some may see damp conditions and puddles leftover from Wednesday’s rainfall, but refreezing is not a big concern since road temperatures and air temperatures remain above freezing. Many are starting the day in the mid-upper 30s.
By the afternoon, a few clouds may linger, but we can expect mostly sunshine. A temperature gradient from north to south will result in those in the north experiencing afternoon high temperatures in the upper 30s, while those to the south will see the low 40s.
Cold air seeps in on Friday
Heading into Friday, the High Pressure to our north will strengthen, bringing in gusty northern winds. Temperatures will drop overnight. By Friday morning, many will be in the 20s and teens.
The afternoon won’t be much better. Temperatures will struggle to warm through the day, with most unable to make it out of the 20s. A few to the south may reach up to the mid 30s.
Cloud cover will build through the evening, ahead of the winter storm moving in overnight.
The weekend winter storm
A major winter storm will move through the Bluegrass this weekend. A winter storm watch will be in effect from Saturday at 1 AM to Monday at 7 AM. The ABC 36 Storm Team has issued Weather Impact Days for Saturday and Sunday.
This is as a Low-Pressure system that tracks from the south, up the eastern seaboard. It will bring heavy snow, ice, and rain to large portions of the United States.
What we know so far
Forecast trends are becoming slightly clearer, but details are still unknown. What we do know is that we will see an initial surge of wintery precipitation. beginning Saturday morning. Then we will likely experience some dry time before a second surge pushes through. The timing of this second surge can greatly vary depending on the track of the Low.
As of Thursday morning, models are still disagreeing on the track of the Low-Pressure system. Multiple models are trending some northern tracks, but just how north is the question.
If the Low is slower, it will likely move further to the south due to the positioning of the low-level jet stream. This would bring mostly snowfall to Kentucky, with a high potential for heavy snow and high totals.
If the Low is faster, it will likely move further north, as it will interact with the low-level jet stream more quickly. This would still mean heavy snowfall in northern KY, but we may see mixed precipitation or ice creeping into central/southern KY in addition to snow.
Models should begin to agree more through Thursday and especially into Friday. This is because we will start to get more data as the Low-Pressure system forms. It technically has not fully come together as of early Thursday morning, but it will throughout the day. Once models can ingest that data on strength, location, and initial movements, a clearer outline of the track will come to light.
Why no totals still
I still don’t quite feel comfortable delvinginto totals this early out, as a lot could still change. There are a few things that could still ‘Bust” the forecast, or cause totals to be lower.
- Any sleet/ice that falls will drastically reduce snow totals. Of course, we will still see major impacts.
- Dry time in between the two surges could cause less snow than initially forecast. This is something that I have seen happen many times before. If the Arctic High surges in dry, cold air, then our second surge could be delayed and reduced. As with the first point, we would still see impacts, just less snowfall.
- The low could sag far to the south, farther than anyone has predicted. This is not likely, but Mother Nature is very unpredictable. If the low were to move farther south, there would be a sharper cut-off from heavy snow to the south, and light snow to the north. As previously stated, most models favor some sort of northern track, so this will likely not be an issue, just a small possibility to consider.
People often complain about how events are overhyped, and that meteorologists struggle to nail down snow totals. These factors are the main reason why forecasts busts happen in big winter events. Plus, impacts are more important than specific snow totals. No matter what we see, this will be a moderate-high impact event.
How to prepare
It will be important this weekend to prepare, but not to panic.
Start by staying on top of the forecast. You can do this by continuing to tune in on-air and online to ABC 36. Download the ABC 36 weather app for real-time updates and alerts for your specific location. Follow our meteorologists and ABC 36 on social media to hear updates throughout the event. A weather radio is also a great tool to hear weather alerts.
Be sure to winterize your home. Keep faucets as a slow drip, open cabinets to allow warm air flow, and keep your heat at 55 degrees or more. Also, be sure to have emergency supplies, just in case. Things like batteries, flashlights, extra food, and water are all good things to keep handy during a winter storm. Also, be sure to keep electronics charged and consider keeping a charged power bank around. Put salt on sidewalks and driveways.
If you haven’t already, consider moving weekend plans. Be ready to hunker down, as dangerous travel conditions are expected. It will be best to stay home and stay inside unless necessary. If you do have to go out, keep your car’s gas tank as full as possible so the fuel lines don’t freeze. Have an emergency car kit with extra warm clothes, flares, jumper cables, a first aid kit, snacks, and water. Also consider keeping a bag of sand or kitty litter, which can be used to create traction under your wheels in slick conditions.
After the storm
By early next week, snowfall will have ended, and arctic air will settle in. Temperatures will be cold, and snowpack on the ground will make it even colder.
Temperatures through all of next week are trending below average. Long-term outlooks also show us staying cold through the rest of January and into the start of February.
As of Thursday, there are only 57 days until spring!
