Political analyst breaks gubernatorial polls, historical impact

LEXINGTON, Ky. (WTVQ) — In Kentucky,  it’s officially crunch time for candidates who are vying for office in the race for governor.

The general election in Kentucky, will be on November 7th.

As the push to sway undecided voters continues, one recent Emerson College Poll shows Andy Beshear being in the lead.

“Polling in Kentucky tends to have very small sample sizes and when the sample sizes are that small, you expect just some random noise,” says Dr. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky.

The Kentucky general election survey is part of a 22-state study on the midwest region and surrounding states.

The Emerson College Poll was done on October 1st – 3rd of 2023 and the sample consisted of 450 registered voters.

“Polls, have error that comes in from multiple sources, when we compare with the polls to the way the actual election winds up, and one of the sources of error is that a lot of people are undecided and the ones who decide very late in the cycle may not break the same way the early deciders vote,” also said Dr. Voss.

The poll which came out five days ago shows incumbent Andy Beshear in the lead, with 49% of the vote to Cameron’s 33%.
The other two options showing that some are still undecided or will be voting for someone else.

“There are voters who are uncomfortable with the trigger laws, very stringent anti abortion regulations who nonetheless are not overwhelmingly pro-choice who would have been open to a sort of moderately conservative message on abortion. But, but trying to grab those voters or reassure those voters so late in the process meant that, Cameron was trying to walk, walk a tightrope, you know, between seeming relatively flexible on abortion while not turning off his pro-life base,” added Dr. Voss.

Dr. Voss also said the ads we have been seeing are a bit more outspoken.

It’s primarily because of where candidates are at in the campaign,” campaigns tend to go in three seasons, figure out who’s already yours so that you, you know, where they are and you can take advantage of them, then sway the people who aren’t yours but are persuadable and then the third stage is fire up the ones that you’ve got,” he also said.

Voss says whichever way the vote swings in November, the result will be historic.

“It’s going to make a splash for a Democrat to show that he can not just win, but win again in a state that was so overwhelmingly Pro-Trump is going to have all eyes on Beshear as people try to figure out what his secret sauce is and try to replicate it in other red states. If Cameron wins, to have an African-American Republican win in a state that’s rarely elected Republicans for governor, let alone elected, black men. He’s going to rise to national prominence even greater than he already has,” also said Voss.

ABC 36 reached out to both the Beshear and Cameron campaigns on a statement.
The Cameron campaign sending the following quote, “You may recall that Emerson was off by 15 points right before the primary, having Cameron at 33 and he ended up at 48. Emerson also had Hillary Clinton winning in a “landslide” in 2016 and we know how that turned out. Daniel Cameron will win on November 7. Kentuckians are tired of the Biden/Beshear agenda that has given them record high inflation, rising crime, and an open southern border. The Club poll, which was released earlier last week, still has Beshear under 50,” said Sean Southard of the Republican Party of Kentucky.

The Beshear Campaign has yet to respond.