Emerson College poll shows tight governor’s race

The Emerson College polling survey of Kentucky voters finds that incumbent Governor Andy Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron in a dead heat for the governor's race.

Lexington, Ky (WTVQ): The Emerson College polling survey of Kentucky voters finds that incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear and Attorney General Daniel Cameron are in a dead heat for the governor’s race, with 47% for Beshear and 47% for Cameron — and 2 percent for others and 4 percent undecided.

Tre Watson, a political consultant, says he thinks this poll is accurate, as opposed to polls a month and a half ago that showed Beshear with a 16-point lead.

Watson took issue with the methodology of prior polls.  “The previous poll was with all registered voters which is a very unreliable way to poll,” he said. “You’re going to get skewed results because you just get a registered voters list and you start calling through it. Until you hit however many voters you need till to make the sample size, to make it a reliable poll.”

Watson says this election is only going to see about 40 to 45% turnout for this election “so,65%t of the people they polled may not be voting. This poll was among likely voters. So, you’re seeing a much more reflective poll of where the race actually stands,” he said.

According to the Emerson College survey, undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward and it found that Cameron holds a slight advantage with 49% support to Beshear’s 48%. Since last month’s poll of registered Kentucky voters, Beshear’s initial support has decreased by two points, from 49% to 47%, while support for Cameron increased 14 points, from 33 to 47%.

Watson says Kentucky can be a hard place to poll. “You have a lot of people that still don’t have cellphones,” he said. “Cellphone numbers are hard to get. You have to pay for them there’s not like a directory like there is with landlines. So, it just makes polling a lot more difficult but more accurate to poll likely voters versus registered voters.”

The Emerson survey also found that more than half of the voters expect Governor Beshear to win, while only 41% think the Attorney General will win.

“It’s going to be very tight,” Watson said. “Your vote will matter in this election. So, you need to use that right to vote and go out and vote.” Watson says he sees this Governor’s race being between one to two points whichever way it swings.