Rural areas lift McConnell to lead in new poll

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LEXINGTON, Ky. (WTVQ) – With less than two weeks before election day, Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Amy McGrath in the Kentucky U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll.

Statewide, 51% of likely voters support McConnell, while 42% back McGrath, 4% are for Libertarian Brad Barron and 3% are undecided, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday morning ( KY1020PollPart2 ).

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The poll of 625 likely voters found McGrath leads 56%-36% in the Louisville Metro area, but McConnell is ahead in the rest of the state — most notably in the rural areas of Western Kentucky — 60%- 34% — and Eastern Kentucky — 58%-35%. He also leads 55%-37% in suburban Northern Kentucky, acc.

The gender gap consists of a wide McConnell advantage with men (55%-36%), against just a slim margin among women for McGrath (49%-47%), the poll found.

A similar split is present within age groups, with the race about even among voters under the age of 50. However, McConnell builds his margin via a strong 16-point advantage with those who are age 50 and up.

In terms of cross-over voting, McConnell is, as necessary for GOP candidates, getting a significant share of registered Democrats — 29% — while by comparison, McGrath is only drawing 12% of registered Republicans.

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from October 12 through October 15, 2020. A total of 625 registered Kentucky voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Kentucky voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is
no more than ±4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or party grouping.