ThursdayEvening, February 24th, 2012: Nothing Severe....Yet?
Good evening! WHAT A DAY! Wow...It was truly gorgeous. Calm before the storm, of course.
Now that thunderstorms are firing up, I wanted to give a quick update on what we can expect over the next several hours.
In my previous post, remember, we need Instability, Wind Shear, & Lift.
We knew that instability would be marginal today, as in most cases in the winter months.
As it currently stands, dewpoints are still in the upper 40s for most of our area with the exception of western KY.
The lack of instability is also evident in CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy).
The red lines indicate the strongest CAPE, or best instability. Notice, the best instability is NOT where the storms have formed.
We have plenty of wind shear, as expected....
Which, basically, "shears" off the top of the storms therefore allowing them to effetively grow and sustain themselves.
As the actual front approaches....
(Still in Missouri) the Lift will increase.
I do not think we are out of the woods just yet. I think storms will continue to pop up along I-65 and move east, quickly gaining strenth. The greatest threats will be a squall line forming with straight line winds...However, an isolated tornado can NOT be ruled out.
Time to prepare for our 1st severe tstorm warning! I'll cut in on ABC36 as needed.