Freeze Warning expires at 9:00 AM on 4/17, issued at 3:24 AM Allen, KY | Annville, KY | Artemus, KY | Ary, KY

Unseasonably Warm Pattern Only Beginning...

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Updated: 3/12/2012 11:05 am
Monday, March 12, 2012: Warm Pattern Only Beginning...

Good Monday morning, folks!

We've had a wet start to the day, and there will be some additional, spotty showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  However, the afternoon activity will not be as widespread as what we had between 5 and 9 AM.

Here is a quick look at the regional radar picture this morning.  An area of weakening low pressure is lifting from Iowa into the Great Lakes.



Courtesy: WSI Corp.


Total rainfall, between this morning's and the additional afternoon showers and thunderstorms, will leave MOST of the area with less than 1/4" of rain.  Localized areas will receive more than that, but in general, this is not a significant rainfall event by any stretch.


Here is the GFS forecast for total rainfall for today and tonight.



Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology


Perhaps the bigger weather story, not only here in Kentucky but across the eastern two-thirds of the United States, is the unseasonably warm air that is arriving.  This morning's mid-morning temperatures were a good deal above normal across the central and eastern US.




Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology


This pattern is only beginning to become established.  The late-winter chill will stick around in the western United States (eventually becoming colder / more exaggerated in the next 8-10 days), but east of the Rockies, an unusually dramatic northward jog of the jet stream will open the gates for some May-like warmth for several days in a row.


Take a look at this morning's European model forecast for 500 millibar heights, averaged for days 8-10.  This represents a forecast for the middle of next week. 



Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology


The central and eastern US will remain unseasonably warm, the western US will be unusually cold, and the severe weather impact zone will shift west, into the high plains and Rockies.


The 70s will begin tomorrow!


Enjoy the mild stretch.  We're not necessarily done with the cold air.  This pattern will be very similar to what we had in 2007, with a very warm spell in March, followed by a jarring, cold plunge in early April which damaged some of the plant life.


Stay tuned!

Geoff

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