Soaking Rain Slides In... Flood Watches Posted

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Updated: 1/26/2012 11:26 am
Thursday, January 26, 2012: Flood Watches Posted, A Soaking Thursday

Good Thursday morning, everybody.  We've already seen a few rain showers, but we're just getting started.

It's going to be a soaking afternoon and evening, with 1" to 2" of rain falling in most areas, and 3" not out of the question for some areas.

A warm front is surging north across central Kentucky, and temperatures are rising into the lower 60s in Lexington.  Even just across the Bluegrass Region, as I type this a few minutes shy of 9 AM, It is 41° in Owen County but 59° in Mercer County, and 60s across far southern Kentucky.  You can see that the computer models are underplaying the warm air, at least south of the warm front.  Here is this morning's WRF forecast for 1 PM temperature.

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The mild air will take a back seat to the real weather headline today: soaking rainfall.  Given the 1" to 2" rain across most of the area, with potential for 3" in some spots, the entire area is under a Flood Watch. 

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We've had some recent heavy rain in a couple of episodes over the past two weeks, so soil moisture content remains high, coming into this rain event.

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There is good model support for more than 2" in some areas.  The latest WRF / NAM clearly shows a stripe of 2" to 3" roughly along, or parallel to, the Daniel Boone National Forest.  This would spell trouble for the Kentucky, Red and Licking River Basins.

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Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology

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This storm system will exit to the east, early on Friday.  On it's heels, a much weaker disturbance will dive southeast, driven by the northern branch of the jet stream, on Saturday.  This will produce only a few sprinkles or flurries.  Flurries are a bit more likely than sprinkles, especially to the north of I-64.  Here is the latest WRF forecast for precipitation between 7 AM and 10 AM on Saturday.

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Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology

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Stay tuned to ABC 36 for updates today.  I'll have more at noon and 12:30, and Meteorologist Lauren Jones is scheduled to bring you the latest at 5, 6 and 11.

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Thanks for stopping by.  Stay dry!

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Geoff

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