Preliminary Look at Weekend Snow Possibilities

Preliminary Look at Weekend Snow Possibilities

This morning's rain is giving way to drizzle. After a dry Friday, a wintry mix on Saturday night could give way to Sunday snow. ?'s abound!
Thursday, February 16, 2012: Damp Thursday... Preliminary Look at Weekend Snow Possibilities

Good Thursday morning, everybody.  I hope you've tolerated the soggy weather through the morning commute.  The widespread showers are pushing through eastern Kentucky as we approach the 9 AM hour, with lots of drizzle remaining near and west of I-75.  It will remain damp through midday, with lots of stubborn, low clouds and patchy drizzle into the afternoon.

Here is a look at the midmorning radar picture.  Temperatures are comfortably above freezing, hovering in the 40s in most areas locally.  The snow and wintry precipitation this morning is well to our northeast in the mountains of Pennsylvania and only the highest of elevations in West Virginia.




Courtesy: WSI Corp.


Friday will be partly sunny and dry with high pressure crossing the Ohio Valley.


Things become more tricky, in the forecast world, this weekend, as the Southeastern low pressure system is trending farther and farther north.  Initially, it appeared that the storm might only produce a light wintry mix in far southern Kentucky.  This morning, there is a model trend that is pushing the storm track farther north, across the southern Appalachians.


Here is the latest GFS forecast for surface pressure (top) and precipitation (bottom) at 7 AM on Sunday.  (The precip. forecast is for the 1 AM to 7 AM window.)



Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology


It is becoming fairly clear that a wintry mix will develop on Saturday night, and that will transition to snow on Sunday morning in many areas. 


Now, it is FAR TOO EARLY to talk specifics, in terms of how much snow one county will receive vs. another. 


With a massive disclaimer that the following two maps are NOT our official forecast, nor are they to be taken literally, we'll take a look at two model forecasts for snowfall.  Locally, if this were to materialize as indicated by the models, snow would fall late Saturday night into Sunday.  One thing is certain: There will be changes between now and Saturday night!


With that said, here is this morning's GFS snowfall forecast.  Note the legend to our south, for model-forecast snow amounts.



Courtesy: www.wxcaster4.com


... and the WRF forecast for weekend snowfall (indicating a more narrow band between "too warm / rain" in southern KY and "too dry" in northern parts of the Bluegrass.



Courtesy: www.wxcaster4.com


... so there is a very preliminary look at what we could be up against this weekend, if all comes together well.


Stay tuned!  We'll have more on this on Friday!


Geoff


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