Ice North, Bluegrass Rain, Milder, A T-Storm South

Ice North, Bluegrass Rain, Milder, A T-Storm South

Freezing rain will be a problem across northern Kentucky tonight, while the metro area and points south see rain with a t-storm.
**** MIDAFTERNOON UPDATE ****

The warm-up is going slowly, and computer models are trending a touch colder.  It is becoming a little more possible that the northern half of the Bluegrass Region may see a brief period of freezing rain as precipitation ends late at night into Saturday morning.  The National Weather Service has extended Winter Weather Advisories farther south, to I-64 because of this trend.

- Geoff

Friday, January 20, 2012: 
An Active Night: Freezing Rain in North, Rain for Most, A T-Storm South

Good Friday afternoon, everybody.  I hope your day is off to a great start, as we close in on the weekend. 

Before we take a look at a very "split" forecast from north to south for the beginning of the weekend, I wanted to show two great photos that were taken by Jonathan Durham in Laurel County yesterday evening.  He captured a great sunset.

 

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Photos Courtesy: Jonathan Durham

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Thanks for sending them our way, Jonathan! 

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We are slowly warming through the lower to middle 30s right now across central Kentucky while northern Kentucky remains in the low to middle 20s, and southern Kentucky is in the 40s.  We have quite the temperature contrast across the Commonwealth, and this spells trouble, for some, this evening, tonight and into tomorrow morning as precipitation heads our way.

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Most of us will receive regular, plain old rain as temperatures continue to climb to the lower 40s in and around Lexington late this evening and into the overnight hours.  Meanwhile, much of southern Kentucky will be in the upper 40s and into the 50s, potentially helping to fuel a few thunderstorms overnight.  To the north, though, readings will really struggle to climb into the 30s, and a period of freezing rain is likely across northern Kentucky tonight and into Saturday morning, a few counties to the north of I-64.  This will generally be outside of the metro area, across Owen, Grant Pendleton, Bracken, Mason, Robertson and Lewis Counties, where there is a Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM tonight until 11 AM tomorrow.

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We mentioned this initially on Thursday morning, and confidence continues to grow that freezing rain and ice will be a problem to the north.  The computer models are trending colder with each run, and here are a few forecasts for precipitation type for 4 AM, among four of the most "reasonable looking" (in my opinion) ensemble members.

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Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology

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So if you are going to be near or north of, say, a line connecting Sadieville to Mount Olivet to Vanceburg, look out for a very icy mess tonight into tomorrow morning.  Even if only a tenth or two tenths of an inch of precipitation falls, we will have problems if surface temperatures are at or below 32°.  It doesn't take much freezing rain to turn all paved surfaces into skating rinks!

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Be careful, and have a fantastic weekend.

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Geoff

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