Even Warmer Today, Soaking Rain Arrives Tomorrow

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Updated: 12/15/2011 10:29 am
Wednesday, December 14, 2011: Temperatures Soar Today, Soaking Rain Tomorrow

Good Wednesday morning, everybody.  It sure doesn't feel like December out there.  Temperatures at midmorning were in the low to middle 50s in most places.  Take a look at the following map.  It shows how the mid-morning temperatures compare to the average mid-morning temperature for December 14th.

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Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology

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We are running about 16° above average right now, but look at Wichita, Kansas, a full 30° warmer than average, just ahead of the strong cold front.  Meanwhile, the West Coast is dealing with the unusually chilly air.

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We'll peak near 61° this afternoon.  In Lexington, the record high for December 14th is 69°, set back in 1971 and tied in 1984.  While we won't be in record territory in the Horse Capital, it will be unusually warm with a strong breeze from the south.

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Thursday will begin very warm, but a widespread batch of rain will accompany a strong cold front during the day.  Most of the rain will cross the Lexington metro area between around 7 AM and 3 or 4 PM on Thursday.  Rainfall amounts will probably average between 1/2" and 1" in most places.  Here is the latest WRF forecast for total rainfall.  You'll notice that this particular model run produces a little more than 1" in the western part of the Bluegrass, with less than 1/4" southeast of Pikeville.

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Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology

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Another wave of low pressure will pass just to the south of Kentucky on Friday.  This will produce another batch of light to moderate, colder rain showers across southern and southeastern Kentucky.  Meanwhile, most places along and north of I-64 will be quite a bit drier on Friday.

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While it is a little bit like watching paint dry, we're still monitoring the flooding situation at Herrington Lake.  The Lake is now only about 1' above flood stage, and it continues to slowly fall.  Most likely, the next batch of rain on Thursday will not lead to much additional flooding.

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Colder air will return behind this system, and the weekend will feature highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.  We'll warm back up early next week, closer to 50°.  A more significant cooldown may be here just in time for Christmas.

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Thanks for stopping by!  Enjoy the mild weather while we have it!

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Geoff

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