Annual Rain Record in Jeopardy, "Grey" Christmas

(WTVQ-TV, LLC)
(WTVQ-TV, LLC)
Set Text Size SmallSet Text Size MediumSet Text Size LargeSet Text Size X-Large
Share
Updated: 12/20/2011 10:47 am
Tuesday, December 20, 2011: Drawing Near the Annual Precipitation Record, and a "Grey" Christmas

Good Tuesday morning, folks.  We have two big topics to discuss in today's post, so I'll cut to the chase.

In the next 24 to 36 hours, we will come CLOSE to breaking the annual precipitation record in Lexington.  In 1935, 65.76" of precipitation fell.  Through the first 354 days of 2011, Lexington has received 64.44"... that's right, we're within 1.32" of tieing the record.  If you're a weather dweeb like me, this is an exciting prospect.

Scattered showers in western Kentucky will slide east into the Bluegrass Region this afternoon.  This evening and tonight, the rain will become heavier and more widespread, and many places will receive between 1/2" and 1"... but there is potential for more.  Here is our in-house model's forecast for rainfall through midday Wednesday.

-

Somewhat interestingly (and this should not be taken literally), the model happens to crank out 1.35" in Lexington.  However, you'll notice that the surrounding towns are expected to receive less.  A forecast of AROUND 1" may be the most valuable thing to take from this map, although we can keep in the back of our minds the potential for more.

-

Behind this system, another back of widespread rain will arrive on Thursday.  This may end up being what puts us over the 'edge' in meeting or breaking the record.

-

Christmas is fast approaching, and many are wondering if we'll have a White Christmas.  This remains an exceptionally CHALLENGING forecast.  No, we in the weather business are not trying to dodge the question, or cover our "tail" this year.  The time period between Friday and Monday is wrought with stark disagreements among the computer models.

-

FOR EXAMPLE, on Christmas morning, some models have a wave of low pressure passing just southeast of Kentucky.  The European model (which is a decent model in the 4-10 day range) indicates a rain-snow mix that would bring SOME PARTS of the area a White Christmas.

-

-

Courtesy: wunderground.com

-

On the other end of the spectrum, take the GFS forecast.  This is the middle-of-the-road American model that is widely used in the 2-7 day time period.  For medium range forecasting, it is the most popular tool our nation's government puts out as a forecasting tool.  It keeps us DRY on Christmas morning, with a few light rain showers and sprinkles in West Virginia.

-

-

Courtesy: NCEP

-

... so bear with us.  We're not trying to dodge the question.  It will just take a little time for the computer models to resolve the Christmas forecast, and as some semblance of a trend or agreement becomes apparent, our forecasts will become more confident regarding Santa's flying conditions. 

-

Whatever the weather, he always seems to do just fine.

-

Until next time, stay dry!

-

Geoff

Share
0 Comment(s)
Comments: Show | Hide

Here are the most recent story comments.View All

No comments yet!
Inergize Digital This site is hosted and managed by Inergize Digital.
   

WTVQ.com supports children's privacy rights. All persons under the age of 13 MUST have parental permission to use this website and direct parental supervision is strongly recommended.