Wednesday, January 11, 2012: Lexington's First Measurable Rain of 2012 Today, First (Official) Measurable Snow of Winter TomorrowGood Wednesday morning, everybody! It is a soaker out there, with steady rain falling across much of the area, a few midday breaks and additional rain showers in the forecast for the afternoon. Take a look at the mid-morning radar picture.
Courtesy: WSI Corp.
You may notice some pink on the radar up in parts of VA and WV, as well as OH. Sleet and freezing rain are occurring this morning in some of our neighboring states, but we have avoided the ice by about 8 to 10 degrees this morning in the Bluegrass Region. Rain totals have reached 0.77" in Lexington and 0.84" in Louisville so far today, and this is our first measurable rain of the year for most of us. Jackson, KY has had 0.54" through 10:30 AM, and the daily rainfall record is well within reach in Jackson (0.62" from 1989).
Rain totals will climb above 1" in many areas before today's storm system exits to the northeast, late in the day, leaving only a few leftover showers this evening and tonight.
On the radar picture, the snow showers in the northern Plains are associated with a strong cold front that will arrive on Thursday. After a morning high in the lower 40s tomorrow, temperatures will fall through the 30s during the day and a widespread round of snow showers will occur late Thursday afternoon and into the evening.
Take a look at the 24-hour temperature change, as forecast by the NAM / WRF, between 10 PM Wednesday to 10 PM Thursday. A 25 degree drop in temperature is likely in this time frame across much of central Kentucky.
Thursday's evening rush hour could be a very slick and hazardous time. Similar to what we experienced last Monday, we'll have a high-impact snow shower event, although this round will likely be a little heavier when it comes to the snowfall amounts.
Most areas will have a light accumulation of snow between Thursday (late) afternoon and Friday morning. In general, snow amounts will probably average between 1/2" and maybe a bit more than 1" in some spots. We'll get more specific on Thursday before the event arrives.
Until then, here are are a couple of computer model forecasts. First, the GFS / AVN forecast (slightly more bullish)...
And the NAM / WRF forecast, also for the next 72 hours...
It's going to look a lot more like January (and FEEL a lot more like January) very soon!
I'll have an update on Thursday.