Saturday, February 18th, 2012: The Latest on Sunday's Snow Potential
Good evening, everyone! Just a quick update with the latest data coming in...As we originally anticipated, this storm has taken a more southern track and has lowered totals in the Bluegrass. It has also significantly slowed down its progression.
Nevertheless, WINTER STORM WARNINGS are in effect for most of southern and all of eastern Kentucky, south of I-64, from Sunday morning to Sunday night.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES are in effect for portions of the Bluegrass, including Lexington, and some of central Kentucky.
With the latest data, I think the outermost counties in the winter weather advisory will likely be canceled.
TOTALS: As previously mentioned, the models have shifted the system to the south, slowed its progression, and overall lowered totals.
Starting with our in-house model...
I think this paints a pretty good picture of where the highest amounts will be...however I think the totals are misleading. I do think Lexington, at least the south side, will see around 1-2".
The GFS...
Dramatically lowering totals to where most of central and northern KY only see a dusting or so.
Finally, the NAM...
This shows the shift southward and lower totals...As of NOW, I am leaning heavily towards this model trend.
As for Lexington, and the surrounding metro, it will be a sharp gradient for who sees snow and who doesn't.
My rough forecast totals are as follows....
The higher elevations along the VA border could see 8+".
TIMING: Our in-house model does a great job depicting the timing with this system.
By daybreak, southern KY near Lake Cumberland, will begin to see a rain/mix begin.
This will quickly spread north and east, staying mainly south of I-64 and east of I-65.
This trend will continue with the greatest coverage and intensity in southeastern KY. Notice in this model, Lexington does not receive snowfall. This is still a possibility that Fayette Co. could see no accumulation.
Travel will likely become hazardous where the heavy snow falls creating slick roads, especially in eastern KY. Visibilities will also be reduced in some of the heavier snow bands. Also, this will be a heavy, wet snow so tree limbs and power lines could be damaged.
Geoff will take the reigns Sunday morning and we'll have team coverage with Jennifer and I tomorrow evening.
For the latest on closings around the area, check out our SnoWatch.
Lauren
