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A Late-Week Soaker, Then Colder

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Updated: 1/25/2012 10:04 am
Wednesday, January 25, 2012: A Late-Week Soaker, Then Colder

Good Wednesday morning, everybody.  It is HARD TO BELIEVE it has been a full month since Christmas Day.  Time sure does fly, and we are escaping the first half of winter without much in the way of snowfall.  Some may be happy, but the snow fans are hoping for more.

Once again, it is primarily RAIN that we're talking about in the near-term forecast.  This morning, a large area of low pressure is producing some strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of Texas, and rain is spreading well to the northeast, out ahead of the system, across the lower and middle Mississippi Valley.

 

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Courtesy: Penn State Univ. Dept. of Meteorology

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Locally, most of the early and middle part of the day will be dry, but we will see some scattered rain showers arrive in the afternoon from southwest to northeast.  This evening and tonight, a more widespread, soaking rain will overspread the area, and the rain will be relatively heavy at times during a drenching Thursday.  The rain will likely be steadiest and heaviest to the north and west of Lexington, along a warm front.  The rain will end from west to east on Thursday night and into very early on Friday, potentially ending with a few snowflakes in the mountains of eastern Kentucky on Friday morning.

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Our in-house model produces 1" to 2" of rain across most of the area, with even more from Louisville out toward Evansville, Indiana.

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Behind this storm system, the weekend will be a good bit colder, with the chilliest air arriving on Sunday when highs will only struggle into the middle 30s.

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A weak disturbance will cross Kentucky on Saturday, and it is trending drier and drier, so it is very possible that we remain snow-free.  However, the Canadian model continues to produce some snow flurries or a few scattered, light snow showers on Saturday as it dives southeast from Illinois and Indiana.

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Courtesy: Penn State University Department of Meteorology

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The map above shows the Canadian model's forecast for precipitation between 7 AM and 1 PM on Saturday.  We are not expecting any accumulations, but don't be surprised if you encounter a flurry or two.

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Until then, batten down the hatches.  It's going to be a SOAKING TIME between now and Thursday night.

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Geoff

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