The Difficulty Of Forecasting An Ice Storm

Reported by: Mark Stitz
Set Text Size SmallSet Text Size MediumSet Text Size LargeSet Text Size X-Large
Updated: 2/28 12:35 am
We are still days away from a winter storm that could bring freezing rain to parts of Kentucky, making it very difficult to say who will see rain and who will see freezing rain.

A large difference in temperatures is expected between southern Kentucky and northern Kentucky Sunday, and knowing exactly when each area will fall below freezing Sunday night is hard to predict a day before a storm hits, let alone 3 days in advance.

Meteorologists use various computer models to help forecast storms like this so far in advance, but each computer model is at least slightly wrong.

Meteorologist John Denman from the Louisville National Weather Service said, "Some models do well in this certain type of environment. Other models tend not to do well overall."

The further into the future models predict, the less accurate they become as small mistakes become large mistakes.

Only a minor difference in the track of a storm system can make a huge difference on the impact it has on the region.

If a storm system travels to the north of Kentucky, the region will see mostly rain.

If a storm system tracks further south, the potential for freezing rain and ice is greater.

With any ice storm, computer models and forecasts will become more accurate as the storm approaches.

Families, businesses, and government agencies will be keeping a close eye on the system as it approaches.

Natasha Lacy with the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet says, "About 3 days out, we start to really concentrate on what the meteorologists are focusing their reports on and then about 12-24 hours before a winter event, we start making our plans."
Most Popular
More than 30 teens escape from detention center
A spokesman says more than 30 teens escaped from a Nashville, Tenn. youth detention center and 17 are still being sought.
Kentucky prepares to regulate ride sharing
State regulators are preparing emergency regulations that will go into effect next month to govern ride sharing companies like Uber and Lyft as they expand their services into Kentucky cities.
Police: One In Critical Condition After Shooting
A man was critically injured during a shooting in Shelby County Monday night. Video Video
Pulaski Co. Deputy Charged in Domestic Violence Case
A Pulaski County Sheriff's Deputy has been charged in a domestic violence case stemming from an incident that allegedly happened nearly six months ago. Video Video
Coroner: Elderly Mercer Co. Couple Die in Apparent Murder-Suicide
The Mercer County Coroner has confirmed that an elderly couple were found dead in their home Sunday night following an apparent murder-suicide.
Inergize Digital This site is hosted and managed by Inergize Digital. supports children's privacy rights. All persons under the age of 13 MUST have parental permission to use this website and direct parental supervision is strongly recommended.